2008-2010 : get prepared for the computer battle royale.
Par Julien le dimanche 7 octobre 2007, 15:05 - Lien permanent
The last 2 months has been such an avalanche of news that it was very hard to connect all the dots.
What's sure is we will see from 2008 to 2010 the most impressive and exciting Shumpeterian creative destruction since the first successful personal computers in the 1980s.
It will be so big that anyone among the most successful 2007's stars may not survive to it !
First, 5 technical earthquakes:
- 1) With the new Cortex family of chips, designed by ARM, the "cellphone" lignea of personal computers will become powerful enough to cover the needs of mainstream.
- 2) With the new Silverthorne and Moorestown family of chips, designed by Intel, the "desktop" lignea of personal computers will become energy-savvy enough to power the needs of mainstream for a full day on a battery, and small enough to fit in a pocket.
- 3) Wireless USB over UWB will allow these computers to wirelessly connect to big screens and keyboards when needed.
- 4) With fiber, any home will have the bandwidth to become a server.
- 5) Hard disk drive will pass the milestone where anything done trhough a computer can be remembered.
Second, 5 market consequences
- 1) Computers in the home will revive, as a safe place to store data and server to the fiber
- 2) Laptops will die : too big for the pocket and not safe enough for the data.
- 3) Home+Pocket Integration will be key : especially for data backup and network mobility.
- 4) Every big guy will think towards the endgame : to sell at once pocket+home+connectivities+services.
- 5) As no big guy can MAKE the 4, some will move from B2C to B2B
Finally 10 questions :
- 1) Will Apple sacrify the "Mac" or the "iXxxx" brand to build the Home+Pocket combination ?
- 2) Will Nokia sacrify the subsidies from carriers to build the combination of devices+connectivities ?
- 3) Will Texas Instruments and Qualcomm survive if x86-based chips breach into the pocket ?
- 4) Will Intel survive if ARM-based chips breach into the home ?
- 5) Will Intel try to break Microsoft by pushing Linux down to pocket, up to home ?
- 6) When will Nintendo update the DS to kill cellphones and iPods ?
- 7) Will ONE carrier decide to focus on connectivity as a B2B service for Googles or Nokias ?
- 8) Will Microsoft become an Apple and update Zune and XBox for Home+pocket ?
- 9) Will Dell survive ?
- 10) What will Google do ?