On The Computing Battle Royale Happening: Why The Computer Industry Will Change As Never Before.
Par Julien le lundi 15 juin 2009, 13:11 - Lien permanent
Months ago, I wrote about what I was seeing as the most radical
redistribution of roles in the computer industry since the emergence of
personal computers at the beginning of the 80s.
The past months came up with so many announcements and news that it's hard
not to be sunk.
However, here are the most interesting questions for me.
1) The Form Factor Battle: Netbooks are a mirage
There is not a week without one of the major companies in this sector trying
to come up with a new moniker for this "bizarre" no man's land of 5 to 9''
screen computers.
First Intel reinvented the term Netbook to name them.
Then, Microsoft and nVidia started to try to deconsider this new term with the
most simple "low cost small" laptops.
Recently, Qualcomm and Freescale started promoting the "Smartbook"
name.
I am more on the same camp as Microsoft and nVidia on this: I don't think
that Netbooks can survive as a standalone category for a long time.
As defended at many places on the Web, these computers are sieged between
pocketable mobile phone computers that are much more portable and laptops that
are much more versatile.
In the 2 to 3 years coming, pocketable will become more and more powerful and
able to connect to massive screens and keyboards. In the same time, laptops
will become less expensive with Moore's law.
So Netbooks will join the "nice attempt" graveyard of network computer, smart
terminal and Co.
There are definitely no room for this cross over: they will die.
2) The Processor Battle: Intel vs. ARM
After exiting the mobile phone ARM-based industry years ago, Intel has come
back with an AMD-promoted "x86 everywhere strategy", launching the Atom Brand
towards sub-laptop territories, keeping power and compatibility but working on
power savviness and integration.
I am quite sure that Intel's focus on Netbooks with the current generation of
Atom is just a transitory step towards the main end game.
With the Medfield chipset, due for end of 2010, Intel will be able to target
eventually mobile phone and will be in an face to face battle with the ARM's
ecosystem, led by Qualcomm, TI and nVidia.
Sure, we'll see mobile phones with Medfield in 2011, probably from obscure
Taiwanese companies without enough brand power to really make a
difference.
The real deal for Intel would so to sign a deal either with one of the Top Tier
mobile phone companies (Nokia, Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Palm, RIM,
HTC and Apple) or with one of the Top Tier desk/laptop companies, that will
eventually go to pocketable computing (Dell, HP, Acer, Asus, Toshiba,
Sony...).
I think that whatever the deals, Intel will need to find another angle of
attack than "x86 compatibility".
Medfield will need to provide a real breakthrough in term of power vs. battery
life to have a chance to win.
We'll see.
3) The OS Battle
In the 2 to 3 years coming, we may be on the verge of a radical change in OS
dominants players.
Mobile phone OS suppliers (Palm WebOS, Symbian OS, Mac OS X, Android...) will
move up to laptops with cleaner, more web oriented, touch oriented interfaces,
able to rival Windows.
And once the Netbookmania has blown off, all the interesting work done (by
Jolicloud, gOS Cloud, Intel's Moblin or my friend Olivier Seres' iFrame ) will
migrate both to the simplified "laptop segment" and to the pocketable computing
world.
I can't know yet who will win and who will loose, whether the 25 year old OS /
Hardware unbundling will survive but this is one of the most interesting
question of all.
Will the "slimmed down Linux exposing only a browser to the Cloud" work and
mark the decline of computing power democratization we've seen for the next 50
years?
Will a dramatically new kind of kernel emerge as we're celebrating the 40th
anniversary of Unix?
Finally many questions, few answers, so stay tuned!